Aula de cursos

Goal: analyze a growth plan without treating revenue as profitability.

The distributor’s proposal

A small distributor wants sales to rise by 25% through blanket discounts. A model generates attractive campaigns and confident forecasts. Yet increasing volume at a reduced unit contribution may damage cash flow; acquiring customers, delivering orders and financing inventory all cost money. The internal tension is not that discounts are inherently bad. It is the possibility that the chosen means of growth harms sustainable growth.

Apply the method

1. Define: revenue, contribution margin, working capital, and the objective that matters to the business.
2. Examine: what added volume would compensate for the smaller margin under stated assumptions?
3. Reformulate: compare targeted discounts, bundles, loyalty offers and logistical changes.
4. Verify: test plausible scenarios with documented real inputs or explicitly fictional parameters; assess cash collection and operational capacity.

Audit this fictional sales-growth proposal. Separate known inputs from assumptions; find internal tensions and compare up to three reforms. Build a transparent scenario table for sales, contribution, acquisition costs and cash flow. Do not invent industry statistics. Where values are missing, use labeled variables.

Generated model audit

Ask the AI to build a parameterized spreadsheet or app with prices, variable costs, discounts, sales volume and collection timing. Recalculate two cases manually and change one key assumption. Check whether its recommendation changes for a reason you can explain.

Deliverable: three scenarios, explicit sources or fictional input labels, a downside case, and an observable condition for cancelling the campaign.